today is Nov 28, 2021

Snapshot from Alert WildFire network http://www.alertwildfire.org/sierra/index.html?camera=Axis-Homewood2v=fd40742

Forecast by SnowBrains Meteorologist Andrew Park

10/7/2021 8:00 PM MST

Tonight into Friday:

  • A deep trough will move onshore tonight through Saturday bringing rainfall and some snow to higher terrain surrounding Lake Tahoe. 
  • The majority of precipitation will occur this evening and into tomorrow, diminishing by Friday evening as the trough ejects east. 

Weekend:

  • Cool, northerly flow will dominate the pattern as a shortwave ridge builds over California.
  • Mostly a pleasant weekend with some potential for scattered showers by Sunday evening.

Mon/Wed:

  • As another deep system moves in from the Pacific Northwest, high winds could bring critical fire weather to the region. 

Tonight through the Weekend:

Vorticity maximums have finished swinging around the western periphery of the long-wave trough off the western seaboard. This indicates the low will soon lift quickly to the east across California into the Great Basin. While moisture looks impressive with this system on satellite and models, the majority of the water vapor will slide to the south over lower terrain moving onto bigger and better things in Utah. Currently, the situation over northern CA this evening is quite calm with some scattered thunderstorms and rain showers drifting northeast across the high Sierras as seen using RadarScope below.

This pattern will change overnight with precipitation increasing as the moisture embedded in the flow interacts with the terrain, driving rainfall and snow above 7,500ft. However; I, like the National Weather Service office out of Sacramento, am not impressed with this feature (to Sierra Nevada Standards) as current high resolution ensemble guidance only pinpoints around 6 inches, perhaps a foot or more, in some of the higher elevation peaks. See a snippet from their AFD below (follow them on twitter as well: https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento )

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 151 PM PDT Thu Oct 7 2021 .DISCUSSION... Some light precipitation moving across the area at this time. Mainly over higher terrain from I-80 and north. Upper trough will push across the area tonight and basically be moving on coast by Friday morning. This will push areas of showers across the area tonight. Showers in northern areas now will likely dissipate this evening and more organized area develop south of I-80. This will also bring snow to the higher terrain late tonight into tomorrow morning. Did consider an early season snow advisory but not thinking too much will accumlatate and area meeting lower criteria isn`t too big. Heavier rain amounts should be up to a half inch in upper foothills and mountains which should be hitting the sweet spot for not too much rain in burn scars and beneficial to fires in the area.

Lets take a look at an 18Z NAM cross section over Truckee CA to see this weekends events. Circled below we can see the deep, “moist” trough with freezing levels well below the peaks by the Friday morning. The moisture quickly departs as the system exits the region while a shortwave ridge builds over northern California bringing pleasant conditions back to the area.

Univ of Utah Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences. weather.utah.edu

So how much snow can we expect? Lets take a look at the short range ensemble forecast system (downscaled by the University of Utah Dept. of Atmospheric Science). The image below represents mixture of model output with slightly “tweaked” inputs. This gives us a great representation of different solutions and where the models agree with one another. So will it snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains? Most definitely. How much? We can expect around 3-6 inches by-and-large with the potential for a foot or more in protected areas.  Saturday morning could be quite pretty, please take pictures and post them in the comments below. However this snow shouldn’t stick around that long and will quickly melt by the end of the weekend.

University of Utah Dept. Of Atmospheric Sciences

References/Links:

Alert Wildfire Cameras: http://www.alertwildfire.org/partners.html

RadarScope: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/p/radarscope/9mw4stn492s0

University of Utah Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences weather page: https://weather.utah.edu/